Which 2026 NFL Draft quarterbacks will start in their rookie year?

It may not have been a vintage year for passers, but there's a route to playing time for more of the 2026 draft class than might first be apparent.

Here's how they rank by their chances of starting in Year 1, from most to least likely.

1. Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders

Round 1, Pick 1

The Raiders desperately needed a foundational piece to spearhead their rebuild. By drafting Mendoza first overall, they achieved precisely that, while also using free agency to add bridge quarterback Kirk Cousins.

#Raiders HC Klint Kubiak prefers a rookie QB like Fernando Mendoza to see a veteran 'run the show' at first

"Ideally you don't want him to start from Day 1. You'd love for him to learn behind somebody. That's a perfect world. It doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes they… pic.twitter.com/Z9UXK7PSeZ— Nick Walters (@nickwalt) March 31, 2026 ">Head coach Klint Kubiak has made it clear that Mendoza will sit and learn, but we know he won't be a bench warmer beyond midseason at the latest.

He's too talented to play backup for long, and the clamour to get him on the field will be intense.

2. Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals

Round 3, Pick 65

Beck's experience and production are beyond question. He went 37-6 with Georgia and Miami with 43 career starts and put up nearly 12,000 passing yards.

Jacoby Brissett is the incumbent starter, with Garner Minshew backing him up. They hardly represent an insurmountable obstacle, and Arizona may wish to test what they have in Beck before the 2027 NFL Draft rolls around.

If the season gets away from the Cardinals, which will probably be the case in a tough division like the NFC West, Beck could get the call down the stretch.

3. Cade Klubnik, New York Jets

Round 4, Pick 110

Westlake High produced Drew Brees and Nick Foles. Klubnik went 34-0 there, won three straight Texas state titles and arrived at Clemson as the top-ranked QB recruit in 2022.

His performance in 2025 dipped after 36 touchdowns in 2024, but his decision-making improved every year at Clemson.

David Jensen / Stringer

With Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper, and Adonai Mitchell, the Jets' receiving corps looks legitimately dangerous. Whether they can reach their ceiling with last year's interception leader, Geno Smith, is another matter entirely.

Behind Smith, there's nobody the Jets should trust. And with Geno on a one-year deal, Klubnik is a real threat to play toward the end of the season.

4. Drew Allar, Pittsburgh Steelers

Round 3, Pick 76

Two versions of Allar exist on tape.

Version one is a 6'5" leviathan, with rare arm length and a school-record touchdown-to-interception percentage at Penn State.

Version two consists of inconsistent footwork, streaky accuracy, and a senior season ended by a broken ankle.

Pittsburgh is a great fit. Head coach Mike McCarthy has developed quarterbacks before, and 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers won't be around for long, and may yet surprise us all and retire this offseason.

Assuming Rodgers starts, Allar will be competing with Will Howard for the developmental spot behind backup Mason Rudolph.

Howard is better than his sixth-round draft capital suggests, but if Pittsburgh were truly happy with his progress, they probably wouldn't have burned a third-rounder on Allar.

Of course, if Rodgers actually hangs it up, Allar's chances of starting at some point increase dramatically.

5. Taylen Green, Cleveland Browns

Round 6, Pick 182

Green may be the most athletic QB in the league not named Lamar Jackson. He's 6'6", 227 pounds, has 4.36 speed, and an 83¾-inch wingspan. Yes, you read that right.

While his record-breaking NFL Combine performance was a joy to behold, he's raw and must cut down on the turnovers that plagued his final two years at Arkansas.

With Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, Dillon Gabriel and now Green, the Browns are trying to corner the quarterback market. Sanders or Watson should start.

But there's a new leader in town, with Todd Monken taking over as the new head coach. And he just built an offense around the dual-threat skills of Lamar Jackson...

6. Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams

Round 1, Pick 13

The value in taking Simpson 13th overall has been roundly debated. Planning for life after Stafford made sense, but perhaps the Rams should have waited for the 2027 NFL Draft class.

What we can infer from GM Les Snead spending that pick on Simpson is that they intend for him to be the future.

Clearly, he won't plan while Stafford remains healthy, but once Stafford hangs up his cleats, it should be time for the Simpson show. Let's hope, for the sake of Sean McVay, that the ends justify the means.

7. Garrett Nussmeier, Kansas City Chiefs

Round 7, Pick 249

Nussmeier grew up in film rooms, and it shows in his pre-snap identification and anticipation. He won the Senior Bowl MVP largely because technically, he's more advanced than most of his peers.

The abdominal injury that derailed his 2025 season is a concern, but on that front, the recent news was promising.

Do obstacles get any bigger than Patrick Mahomes? Even if Mahomes isn't healthy in Week 1, Justin Fields stands in Nussmeier's way.

A season spent on the sidelines looks extremely likely, but he has the talent to emerge down the line. With that said, his path to a starting role may lie elsewhere. 

8. Cole Payton, Philadelphia Eagles

Round 5, Pick 178

Stacy Revere / Staff

Payton is clearly designed to run the ball. He's 6'3", 232 pounds, ran a 4.56 40-yard dash and rushed for 31 career touchdowns.

His passing mechanics need serious work. The similarities to Taysom Hill aren't far off.

The Senior Bowl National Team MVP sits behind Jalen Hurts, Tanner McKee and Andy Dalton, but if the Eagles want a short-yardage weapon who can occasionally threaten as a passer, there's a route to snaps right there.

But that's not really a starting job, and Jalen Hurts will be fired up to prove his doubters wrong.

9. Behren Morton, New England Patriots

Round 7, Pick 234

Very little about Morton's game makes you think he's a future starter, but he posted 66% completions in 2025 with a 22-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, played through a hairline fracture in his leg and led Texas Tech to the Big 12 title. He deserves credit for that, at least.

As a two-time captain who has been well coached, we can't rule out the possibility that he'll catch on somewhere at some point in his career.

But it won't be in New England, not while Drake Maye is healthy. And even if Maye went down, Tommy DeVito is there to pick up the pieces. Morton projects as a practice-squad candidate.

10. Athan Kaliakmanis, Washington Commanders

Round 7, pick 223

Kaliakmanis' career completion rate of 56.3% suggests he will struggle to make a roster, let alone become a starter.

He improved as a senior until Oregon and Ohio State arrived on the schedule. Playing against NFL competition will be a struggle.

Competing with former Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman for a practice squad spot is Kaliakmanis' realistic goal in 2026.