Raiders' No.1 pick Fernando Mendoza's failure is 'inevitable' said ex-NFL scout

"He never remotely showed the skillset in college that justified that level of pre-draft hype or draft valuation," said former New York Jets scout Daniel Kelly on social media.

Posted on X under the username ‘First Round Mock,’ Kelly’s assessment was the latest in a series of criticisms levelled towards the young signal-caller.

Despite watching Mendoza win the Heisman and end the 2025 season with a perfect 16-0 record and the College Football National Championship, Kelly predicted the young quarterback would be a bust.

He offered a deeper explanation in the replies.

"Fernando Mendoza showed he had a 4th round skillset at Indiana on game film. But, he was selected 1.01," began Kelly.

"Mendoza failing in the NFL is as inevitable as tomorrow’s sunrise. He is a raw low ceiling developmental project that’s been “put in position” to lead this franchise to success.

"That’s what the general public (Raiders fan base) expects based on the pre-draft hype and when he was selected. He doesn’t have a chance of becoming that based on his demonstrated skillset on his college game film," he continued.

He then compared Mendoza to Kirk Cousins, the veteran quarterback brought in to bridge the gap until Mendoza is ready to start.

Ethan Miller / Staff

"Cousins actually went in the 4th round and had his career framed with the necessary time and space to develop over time.

"Mendoza doesn’t have that time and space based on when he was selected and the volume of hype that was behind him headed into the draft.

"This is the danger of overhyping and overdrafting quarterbacks. The valuation must match what the college quarterback actually demonstrates they are capable of on film as an NFL projection.

"Reaching on these guys doesn’t help him. It actually is the very thing that sets them up to fail."

Strong stuff, but it’s consistent with Kelly’s views on Mendoza from pre-draft, when he said, "This guy is an absolute guaranteed bust."

Was Kelly right?

Kelly picked holes in Mendoza’s skill set, leaning heavily on what he saw, or did not see, on tape.

In that sense, there were other detractors pre-draft, but very few who felt quite as strongly, and even those who did offered a more balanced assessment.

Heisman winners don’t usually get accused of having a fourth-round arm, and that point, more than any, is what makes this sound like pure hyperbole.

How many players selected that late in drafts can claim to have engineered 80-yard game-winning drives at Penn State, a road win at Oregon, or the decisive, frankly Herculean touchdown run in the national title game?

As to Kelly’s other point, yes, the first overall pick comes with huge expectations, but his assertion that Mendoza will not be given time to develop simply doesn’t hold up.

"Ideally, you don’t want him to start from Day 1," head coach Klint Kubiak told reporters about Mendoza in the offseason. "You’d love for him to learn behind somebody."

As we now know, Cousins will start the season, and Mendoza will watch and learn.

For now, we can probably chalk this one up to headline-grabbing sensationalism. But somewhere down the line, if Kelly proves to be correct, you can be sure he’ll be reminding the Raiders and all of us how wrong we were.