What should the Las Vegas Raiders do with the number one pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

With the league’s worst record and a slate that offers little realistic hope of late redemption, the Raiders now sit with roughly an 80 per cent chance of landing the No.1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

That is a powerful, dangerous thing for a franchise that has spent much of the past two decades proving it can mess up even the most obvious opportunities.

So what should they do with it? This is the moment where bad teams convince themselves they’re one smart decision away from relevance.

The Raiders, roster thin and identity-free, are no different. The temptation is obvious: take a quarterback, declare the Geno Smith era over and sell hope. But hope, like most things in Las Vegas, can disappear quickly. Still, here are three plausible paths.

Draft Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza

Mendoza has played his way into genuine No.1-pick consideration with a calm, controlled final college season that showcased accuracy, pocket poise and just enough mobility to survive behind an NFL offensive line that might politely be described as “aspirational".

For the Raiders, drafting Mendoza would be a declaration that the quarterback carousel is finally stopping. He would arrive as the unquestioned starter, the face of the franchise and the excuse for everyone else to get another year.

The risk is familiar: dropping a young quarterback into a roster that still struggles to protect, separate and defend is how confidence gets broken.

Draft Oregon QB Dante Moore

If Moore declares for the 2026 draft, the upside play becomes very tempting. He is the more explosive talent, capable of turning broken plays into highlights and lifting an offence that otherwise feels stuck in neutral.

Moore’s arm talent and creativity would instantly make the Raiders watchable, which shouldn’t be underestimated for a team that often looks like it’s playing in grayscale.

The concern is refinement. Moore is still learning when not to chase the spectacular, and the Raiders are not exactly renowned for providing stable developmental environments.

Trade back and hoard picks

The most sensible option is also the least glamorous. Trading out of No.1 would allow the Raiders to address the uncomfortable truth that this roster has holes everywhere.

Extra first- and second-round picks could rebuild the offensive line, add defensive speed and maybe even find a quarterback without asking him to save the franchise on arrival.

It would be an admission that this is a multi-year project, not a quick fix. Which, historically, has never been the Raiders’ favourite thing to admit.