
World Cups have a habit of settling Ballon d'Or debates. Fabio Cannavaro rode Italy's triumph in 2006 to football's biggest individual prize. Luka Modric's 2018 campaign was propelled by Croatia's run to the final. Lionel Messi's masterpiece in Qatar two years ago effectively ended the argument before the club season had even concluded.
This time, things feel different. Spain lifted the trophy in New York, but no obvious favourite has emerged. Some of the tournament's standout performers fell short at club level. Others collected domestic honours but missed out on the biggest international prize. With voting now looming, the race remains unusually open.
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Even at 39, Messi somehow managed to drag Argentina to another World Cup final. Eight goals and four assists represented another astonishing tournament return, while his influence stretched well beyond the numbers as he orchestrated almost every meaningful attacking move before Argentina eventually fell to Spain in the final.
His domestic form with Inter Miami has remained exceptional, but there is an unavoidable obstacle to his candidacy. Ballon d'Or voters have traditionally placed greater value on performances in Europe's elite competitions than Major League Soccer. Add in a relatively subdued display in the World Cup final and, despite a remarkable campaign, a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or feels unlikely.
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No player scored more goals at the World Cup than Mbappe. His haul of ten secured the Golden Boot and also moved him ahead of Messi as the tournament's outright all-time leading scorer, underlining his extraordinary record on football's biggest stage.
His individual numbers for Real Madrid were once again outstanding, yet the lack of major silverware is difficult to ignore. Madrid finished without either La Liga or the Champions League, while France's semi-final exit felt like an underachievement given the attacking talent at Didier Deschamps' disposal. Mbappe strengthened his personal legacy, but perhaps not his Ballon d'Or case.
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Manchester City endured a campaign that fell below the extraordinary standards they have set in recent seasons, and Rodri's club performances reflected that. He remained influential but did not quite reach the imperious heights that won him the award two years ago.
Spain's World Cup triumph changed the conversation. Rodri was magnificent throughout the tournament, dictating matches with his familiar composure before collecting the Golden Ball as the competition's outstanding player. The award carries enormous weight with Ballon d'Or voters and makes him a serious contender despite a relatively modest club campaign.
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Spain's triumph owed much to Yamal, even if this was not quite the exhilarating version seen for Barcelona throughout the season. Having arrived at the World Cup recovering from a hamstring injury, the teenager occasionally looked short of his explosive best but still produced decisive moments as Spain lifted the trophy.
His club campaign arguably remains the strongest of anyone in contention. He inspired Barcelona to the La Liga title while establishing himself as one of the game's defining talents before his 19th birthday. Had he reached his dazzling domestic level consistently throughout the World Cup, this ranking might look rather different.
@England
The absence of a runaway favourite opens the door for Kane.
England ultimately fell short of World Cup glory, but six goals represented another prolific tournament from the captain, who remained the focal point of Thomas Tuchel's attack throughout. More importantly, his body of work across the entire campaign is almost impossible to overlook.
Seventy goals for Bayern Munich and England across the 2025-26 season is an extraordinary return by any standard.
Add a Bundesliga title to those numbers and Kane possesses the strongest combination of sustained excellence and team success among the leading candidates. He may not have lifted the World Cup, but in the most open Ballon d'Or race for years, consistency across the full season could yet prove decisive.
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