History says the Buffalo Sabres may be in deep trouble

The 2026 Atlantic Division winners currently find themselves trailing the Montreal Canadiens 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. While being down a game doesn’t sound too daunting, history is not on the side of the Sabres here.

Buffalo has a 0-14 series record when trailing 2-1 in a best-of-seven matchup. In that scenario, there is no other franchise in NHL history with as many series losses without a win. 

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And now, if they want to break that streak and avoid going 0-15, they’re going to have to find a way to play the style of hockey that won their first division title in 16 years.

But how?

Since the third period of game one, Buffalo has been outscored by Montreal 11-3. Their defense has given the Canadiens far too many open opportunities, and the top players have been anything but.

Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin each have a goal and an assist; Josh Norris, the team’s highest-paid forward, doesn’t have a single point; and Alex Tuch, who’s looking for a contract north of $10 million this offseason, has also been held scoreless.

With Game 4 on Tuesday night, the Sabres are entering desperation territory. 

Based on the morning skate from Montreal, head coach Lindy Ruff appears to be making major changes to the lineup. 

The biggest change comes in the net. For the first time since Game 2 of the first-round series against Boston, it appears that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will get the start. Alex Lyon, who took over in Game 2 against Boston and had held onto the crease ever since, returns to the bench after allowing nine goals across the last two games.

The forward group is also set to see a change as Sam Carrick, after returning for Game 3 from injury, was removed from the lines during the morning skate. In his place is 20-year-old Konsta Helenius. He was centering a line between Jack Quinn and Jason Zucker for what could be the young player’s playoff debut. 

In his second season with the American Hockey League’s Rochester Americans, Helenius scored 63 points in 63 games, leading the team. In nine games with Buffalo this year, he had four points and showed flashes of the speed and playmaking ability the Sabres need if they want a chance to win this series.

Finally, defensively, Buffalo is making the decision to rotate the bottom pairing. While it had been Logan Stanley and Connor Timmins, Tuesday saw Luke Schenn working with Timmins. Stanley was with Michael Kesselring as the extra pairing. 

The changes signal that Ruff understands the urgency of the moment. With the series slipping away and history working against them, the Sabres will need a far stronger performance Tuesday night if they hope to even the series before returning to Buffalo.