MMA
UFC Fight Night odds, prediction, betting trends for Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis
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The next major MMA event takes place on Saturday night, with UFC Fight Night live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
The main event features No. 2-ranked Curtis Blaydes meeting No. 4-ranked Derrick Lewis in heavyweight action.
As always with a UFC event, there are certainly plenty of bets to be made. Let's take a look at some of them.
UFC Fight Night odds for Blaydes vs. Lewis
Curtis Blaydes: -450
Derrick Lewis: +333
(All odds via BetMGM)
BetMGM has Blaydes installed as a massive favorite — as of Wednesday he comes in at -450, meaning you'd need to bet $450 to win $100. Meanwhile, Lewis is a +333, meaning if you pluck down $100, you'd win $333.
Blaydes (14-2, one no-contest) enters the contest on a four-fight winning streak, including a unanimous decision win over No. 5-ranked Alexander Volkov in a UFC Fight Night headliner back in June. A win against Lewis would move Blaydes toward his first UFC title shot.
Lewis (24-7, one no-contest), a former heavyweight title challenger, is on a good run of his own. The Texas native has won three consecutive bouts, including a second-round TKO victory against No. 10-ranked Aleksei Oleinik in a UFC Fight Night main event back in August. Getting a victory over Blaydes would give "The Black Beast" another opportunity at UFC gold after losing by second-round submission to Daniel Cormier at UFC 230 in November 2018.
When you look at Blaydes and Lewis' respective resumes and fighting styles, you can see why the oddsmakers are all in on the former. Blaydes' ground game is second to none and the best in the heavyweight division. Look at what he did to Mark Hunt and Alexander Volkov. He took them down at will, suffocated, mauled, and beat them up the entire way.
Suppose guys are stuffing Blaydes' takedown attempts or somehow getting back up to their feet. In that case, the Illinois native has no problem letting his hands go and slinging the leather, evidenced by the destructive TKO wins over ranked contenders Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, and former champion Junior dos Santos.
Plain and simple, Lewis is a one-trick pony. He's looking for the knockout for the duration of the fight. Out of his 24 career wins, 19 of them have come by knockout, with 11 coming in the UFC. Lewis is always one punch away from putting your lights out — with his last-second KO of Volkov at UFC 229 in a fight he was down on the scorecards.
In the buildup to Saturday night, Blaydes' made it clear that he would try and take Lewis down and batter him for his path to victory, understanding the Texan possesses uncanny power.
Does Lewis have a chance? Of course, he does. It is a fight, and anything can happen. Blaydes will get Lewis down and wear him down to the point of exhaustion. From there, it will be up to Blaydes on how he wants to finish things off as he will extend his winning streak to five.
You gain nothing from betting Blaydes unless you have an excessive amount of money to waste. Take a flyer on Lewis, as those odds are too good to pass up on a guy whose ranked number four in the weight class.
Overeem vs. Volkov prediction
Muehlhausen pick: Curtis Blaydes
Best odds: Derrick Lewis to win by KO/TKO, Submission or DQ: +450
More Overeem vs. Volkov odds
Total number or rounds: over/under
Over 1.5: -185
Under 1.5: +155
Will the fight go the distance?
Yes: +260
No: -350
Method of victory
Blaydes by KO/TKO/DQ or submission: -165
Blaydes by decision: +340
Tie/technical tie: +5000
Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ or submission: +400
Lewis by decision: +1600
