
There is a temptation, after a defeat like last week, to declare the race run. To watch Arsenal fold 2-1 at the Etihad and assume that Manchester City have done what Manchester City always do: arrive late, win big, crush dreams.
That temptation should be resisted, not least because the fixture list still whispers something rather inconvenient for Pep Guardiola’s champions – Arsenal’s path is, on paper at least, significantly kinder.
The table tells one story – City now on top, momentum firmly theirs – but the run-in tells another. Arsenal’s remaining fixtures read like an opportunity disguised as a pressure test: Newcastle at home, Fulham at home, West Ham away, Burnley at home, Crystal Palace away. Not a single top-five side remains.
Indeed, by some projections, they will not face another elite opponent between now and the final day. Compare that with City, who must negotiate awkward trips and a deeper fixture list including Everton away, Brentford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa – plus a game in hand squeezed into an already demanding calendar.
That is the argument for hope. The argument against Arsenal is, unfortunately for Mikel Arteta, Arsenal themselves.
One win in six across competitions, goals drying up, confidence leaking – this is not the same side that built a commanding lead. The defeat at the Etihad was not just damaging in arithmetic terms, but psychological ones.
Arsenal led, competed, and then – as has too often been the case in recent title races – wilted when it mattered most. The numbers back up the unease: just three goals in five recent domestic games, a run that has dragged City back into contention.
And so we arrive at Arteta’s make-or-break month. The equation is brutally simple: Arsenal likely need maximum points. Not “most of them”. Not “enough”. Maximum. The margin for error has evaporated, because City rarely offer any themselves.
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That demands two things from Arteta. First, he must restore belief in a squad that has seen this film before and knows how it ends. The Spaniard insists the “title race starts now,” but slogans are cheap; what matters is whether his players still believe they are the protagonists rather than the cautionary tale.
Second, and more pressing, he must reignite an attack that has stalled at precisely the wrong time. Control without incision is not enough in April and May. T
he sterile dominance that once suffocated opponents now merely delays the inevitable.
There is, undeniably, a route to the title. Win five from five and Arsenal almost certainly force City into perfection – a dangerous game even for Guardiola. The fixture list gives them that chance. It practically begs them to take it.
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But this is where narratives harden into judgments. If Arsenal fall short again – if this gentler run-in is squandered, if the attack continues to misfire, if the pressure once more proves too much – then the questions will no longer be avoidable. Not about the players, nor the squad depth, nor the injuries. About the manager.
If Arteta cannot get Arsenal over the line from here, with this run-in, with this opportunity, then the uncomfortable question will grow louder: is he the man to take them the final step, or merely the one who brought them close enough to feel the fall?
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