Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas: List of odds, favorites, markets, prediction and betting trends

As always, with a big-time boxing card, there are plenty of bets to be made. Let's take a look at some of them. 

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas odds

Errol Spence Jr.: -450
Yordenis Ugas: +350

(All odds via BetMGM)

BetMGM (as of Thursday, April 14) has Spence installed as a massive favorite — coming in at -450, meaning you'd need to bet $450 just to win $100. Meanwhile, Ugas is a live underdog at +350, meaning if you pluck down $100, you will win $350 if the native of Cuba walks out of Texas with three of the 147-pound belts.

Spence (27-0, 21 KOs) returns to action for the first time in over 16 months and only the second time since his September 2019 fight of the year candidate against Shawn Porter. The unified welterweight last competed in December 2020, dominating Danny Garcia to win a lopsided decision. He was scheduled to face Manny Pacquiao in August, but 11 days before they were supposed to step through the ropes, Spence suffered a detached retina which required surgery. Who replaced Spence?

Enter Ugas (27-4, 12 KOs), who stepped right in with no fear and sent Pacquaio into retirement, winning by unanimous decision to earn the fight against Spence. Ugas' won 12 of his last 13, with the lone loss coming by a controversial split decision versus Shawn Porter. However, most felt Ugas did more than enough to dethrone Porter. 

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas prediction

When the fight was announced, fans were happy because it was the proper fight to make, which rarely happens in boxing. But when the odds came out, there was definitely some shock considering what each guy has done lately. Why might you make that type of statement?

While Spence is widely considered the best welterweight on the planet (Terence Crawford fans would disagree), his inactivity has to be factored in. You can't go and fight every 15-16 months against the best and expect to always walk away with the victory. There was a reason Spence chose Garcia in his comeback fight after the horrific car accident in October 2019. Garcia hadn't beaten anyone of note since 2015 and is viewed as good but not elite at this stage of his career. Now, he's facing someone who's on a torrid run and comes in with zero fear of facing Spence in his home state.

Ugas had been viewed as a journeyman with no upside. Life changed for the 35-year-old six years ago when he started training with Ismael Salas. After that trainer switch, Ugas hasn't looked back. 

There's no doubt he beat Porter on March 9, 2019. However, he made up for the loss by accepting the short notice fight against Pacquiao when he left boxing's only eight-division world champion battered and bruised and left with more questions than answers. 

I feel like Ugas will come out and implement the same plan of attack he used on Pacquiao with Spence. He's the bigger man and will use his weight and power advantage to wear Spence down. 

For Spence, he has to use his speed and be the aggressor from the opening bell. He cannot let Ugas get into a rhythm and let him lead the dance. 

On the betting side, I wouldn't touch the -450 on Spence unless you are doing a parlay on other sports action or are bored and feel like blowing some money.

I'd make a decent size wager on Ugas winning to hold three of the four welterweight titles. He's the better boxer, has been more active, and will make Spence pay for thinking he can be inactive and confident to think he can step right back in and pick up where he left off. In addition, those odds are way too good to pass up. 

Muehlhausen's pick: Errol Spence Jr.

Best odds: Yordenis Ugas +350